Unbelievable prediction system ‘Last year 36 → 62’ Jersey, 46 this year?

How many arches can Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees, who set the record for most home runs in a season in the American League last year, draw this season?

Most prediction systems are 먹튀검증 predicting Judge’s home runs this year in the 40s. It is believed that the possibility of continuing the historic home run pace shown last year is not very high.

Marcels Projections, a prediction system used by Baseball Reference, expects Judge to hit .288 (150-for-521), 41 homers, 99 RBIs, 97 runs scored, and an OPS of .953 this year. This system draws predictions by weighting the record of the most recent season based on data from the last three seasons, and was devised by Tom Tango, a baseball statistician based on sabermetrics.

ZiPS applied by Fangraph and Judge’s home run expected by Steamer this season are not very different. ZiPS predicted that Judge would bat 0.280 (152 hits in 543), 46 homers, 120 RBIs, 106 runs, OPS 0.964, WAR 7.4, and Steamer would bat 0.275 (156 hits, 567), 44 homers, 106 RBIs, 111 runs, OPS 0.936, WAR 6.9, respectively.

However, it is difficult to say that these forecasts reflect reality well. Tom Tango described the Marcel projection as ‘the minimum level of competence expected of any forecaster’. This means that among the numbers obtained through the simulation, the lowest value is selected.

Fangraphs statistician Dan Zimbrowski said of ZiPS, “Based on statistics from the last four years, weighted for three years, speed, injury history, and all plays, etc. are put into a formula to calculate it, depending on past performance and age. Know the treads that appear,’ he explains. After all, forecasting is bound to be past-oriented.

On the 24th (Korean time), MLB.com introduced the expected number of home runs for Judge this year as 44 based on Steamer’s forecast, and said, ‘These forecasts always tend to be conservative. In other words, there is a possibility that someone will oust Judge from the home run king this year.”

ZiPS predicted 36 homers for Judge before the season last year. But in reality, he blew 62, breaking Roger Maris’ record in 1961 by one in 61 years. Predictions are always like this. No matter who predicts, it appears that there is the highest probability that the number one home run this season will be occupied.

Meanwhile, ZiPS predicted a batting average of 0.260, 36 homers, 88 RBIs, 88 runs, an OPS of 0.870, 13-8, an average ERA of 3.00, and 193 strikeouts for Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Angels this season. It is predicted that the pitching performance will continue this season.

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